A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
