Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
